Bubble Watch: May 3
Top StoriesOh, for comparison’s sake.
That’s where we are on the bubble, entering week thirteen. There are only a handful of teams that are still truly in play for one of the remaining spots in the NCAA tournament. To determine who’s in and who’s out, the NCAA Softball Committee will compare resumes, choose their preferred metrics, and fill out the field thereafter.
Entering the final week of the regular season, and with conference tournaments set for next week ahead of Selection Sunday on May 12, there are no more than five spots in the NCAA tournament field that are still in play – truth be told, that number may be as low as 2-3. Most of the projected field should feel pretty good about their current positioning.
Key Metrics
For today’s Bubble Watch, let’s look at how some true bubble teams stack up against one another in key metrics. We’ll look at each team’s resume in the following categories: Quad 1 record, Quad 4 record, highest RPI wins, and non-conference strength of schedule. All of these data points are utilized by the softball committee.
| Team | Quad 1 record | Quad 4 record | Highest RPI Wins | Non-Con SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn St. | 1-5 | 20-2 | #13 Arkansas | 21 |
| Texas Tech | 2-10 | 11-1 | #18 Texas State, #19 Baylor | 83 |
| Ole Miss | 5-15 | 16-2 | #3 LSU, #21 Auburn, #24 Mississippi State, #36 Miami Ohio | 84 |
| Kansas | 4-10 | 10-2 | #12 Texas A&M, #19 Baylor | 99 |
| Utah | 4-12 | 13-0 | #19 Baylor, #20 Cal, #22 Arizona | 164 |
| Louisville | 4-9 | 12-2 | #4 Duke, #11 Florida State, #22 Arizona, #25 Clemson | 53 |
| Indiana | 0-5 | 24-1 | #32 Oregon, #41 Florida Atlantic, #43 Kansas, #45 Louisville | 138 |
| Nebraska | 0-5 | 12-1 | #31 South Alabama, #32 Oregon, #33 Penn State, #43 Kansas | 30 |
| Wichita St. | 1-8 | 10-1 | #13 Arkansas, #26 South Carolina, #28 Charlotte, #41 Florida Atlantic, #48 Nebraska | 12 |
| Nevada | 0-2 | 27-6 | #39 San Diego State, #60 Fresno State, #73 Boise State, #90 Rutgers, #97 Stony Brook | 116 |
| South Fla. | 1-3 | 15-3 | #16 Florida, #28 Charlotte, #37 Michigan, #41 Florida Atlantic, #43 Kansas, #45 Louisville, #49 Wichita State | 77 |
| Ohio St. | 0-3 | 17-0 | #27 Kentucky, #30 Northwestern, #33 Penn State, #62 South Dakota State | 48 |
Bus vs. Flight
One of the edicts given to the softball committee each year is the “bussing rule” – that is, teams within a 400-mile radius of regional hosts have to bus to that host vs. fly across the country to stay true to a seed line. This edict is where you get things like Clemson’s trip to Alabama in 2021, even though Alabama was a top-3 seed and Clemson narrowly missed a hosting opportunity.
Because Clemson is within 400 miles of Tuscaloosa, on a bus ride the Tigers went.
With rare exceptions, the committee has to stick to that 400-mile radius as much as they can. Lopsided regionals that favor the host team and unexpectedly-heavy regionals both can often be traced back to this guideline.
In the latest edition of D1Softball’s Bracketology, Eric Lopez has only eight regional 2-seeds boarding a flight; the remaining eight are all bussing to their respective regional sites. This is a key point in analyzing what the softball committee will do on Selection Sunday – because that bussing rule exists, it limits the number of matchups that the committee can actually determine on their own.
Of the eight predicted regional hosts that would welcome in a 2-seed by flight, three of those hosts are Big 12 teams, three are in the SEC, and two are in the PAC-12. This is also a key note, because six of the eight teams that would board those flights are coming out of the PAC-12 or the SEC. Since conference teams cannot be matched up in the regional round, that further limits what teams can go where as regional 2-seeds, even by air.
Also of note, just five regional 3-seeds would travel by flight in the latest edition of Bracketology. Three Big 12 hosts and two SEC hosts are projected to host those teams – and Big 12 member Texas Tech is a 3-seed who would have to fly to any regional destination. The Red Raiders only have a couple of realistic options as their destination based on this.
Upsets in conference tournaments could have an affect on which teams bus where, how many teams have to fly, and where geography can and can’t be considered. More 4-seeds that are able to bus to a regional host could mean more flexibility for the committee on other seed lines, should they choose to take advantage of it.